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MLB: Betting Baseball on Central Casting
2008-08-19

The American League Central Division has been a nip and tuck affair for weeks, with two of the unlikeliest teams competing. If this was Cleveland and Detroit going toe-to-toe in the later stages of August, this would have just played out as most would have figured. Instead, the Chicago White Sox emerged early in the season with salty skipper Ozzie Guillen leading the way and Minnesota played baseball the way it was intended and has outmaneuvered the opposition all season and is one game behind the White Sox in the division play and the same margin in the wild card chase.

Minnesota (70-54, +19.3 units) was stumped last night by Justin Duchscherer and Oakland 3-2, to fall a game behind Chicago. That ended the Twins four-game winning streak, as they banged out double digit hits for the fourth consecutive contest, but could not capitalize. Manager Ron Gardenhire was not overly concerned about one ball game, “We feel pretty good with ourselves. We’re not going to quit and we got back into it,” Gardenhire said. “With our ballclub you feel like you’re going to find a way to get a big hit and tie the ballgame. We just couldn’t come up with one.” The skipper has plenty of reason to feel pretty good about his club, the Twins haven’t been more than a game out of first place since July 30, when they were 1 1/2 games behind Chicago, and they haven’t lost consecutive games at home during the same series since losing the first two in a set against the New York Yankees May 30 and 31.

Minnesota is 17-5 against the money line in home games in the second half of the season and again faces an Oakland squad that is 6-23 since the All-Star break and has not won a series on the road since mid-June when they defeated San Francisco. Though last night’s loss was the first of its kind in 2008, the Twinkies are still awesome 13-1 with an on-base percentage of .393 or better over their last three games. Sportsbook.com likes the pitching matchup with the Twins Kevin Slowey (9-8, 3.94, 1.085 WHIP) facing the A’s Sean Gallagher (4-5, 4.50, 1.524), establishing them as -200 money line favorites with total of Un8.5. Minny is 44-23 at the Metrodome, garnering the second most profit in baseball at +20 units.

About 60 seconds later on the south side of Chicago, the White Sox (71-53, +14.4 units) will once again face the American League’s worst team in Seattle. The White Sox are back to 2005 World Series form, with solid starting pitching, a deep bullpen and bountiful home runs. At present, this club is not quite as good in the first two categories as its predecessor; nonetheless they are bopping the baseball, leading the majors in home runs with 182, including 33 this month alone. Carlos Quentin leads the big leagues with 35 and seven other players are in double figures.

The Pale Hose have won 38 of last 51 contests at US Cellular Field and are demolishing bad teams like the Mariners with 18-6 mark versus clubs with winning percentage below .400. Left-hander Clayton Richard has the starting assignment for Chicago and has been dreadful to date with 0-2 record and 9.64 ERA, being recalled from the minors just this past Friday with Jose Contreras back on the disabled list.

Seattle at least will have a chance with Felix Hernandez (7-7, 3.04, 1.291) on the mound. Hernandez is 0-1 in last five starts, thanks to faulty bullpen and offense not always showing when he pitches. The Mariners are only 8-20 in last 28 contests; however is 5-0 in King Felix’s last five road starts against winning teams. The M’s have opened as -108 money line favorite, with total Ov9.

The total deserves consideration, with Seattle on 8-0 Over run and the White Sox launching homers everywhere. The Mariners are 7-0 Over facing lefties and Chicago is 11-4-1 Over when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.

Since Minnesota and Chicago do not meet again until the last week of the season, plenty of scoreboard watching for both clubs down the stretch.




MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends
2008-08-08

Two key series’ in each league will highlight the MLB schedule for the weekend as continue to push deeper into the pennant races. In the National League, division rivals will go head-to-head in both Chicago and New York, as the Cubs welcome St. Louis to town, and the Mets host a 3-game series against the Marlins. In the American League, it’s the battle of the Sox, Red and White, from the south side of the Chicago, along with a big series on the West Coast with the Angels welcoming the Yankees to L.A. It’s a big weekend of baseball, so here’s a closer look at all four of those key series’, along with a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 weekend matchups on the diamond.

On the north side of the Windy City, the N.L. Central Division leading Cubs will host rival St. Louis. The Cardinals sit 6-games back in the division race and 1-game out of the top wildcard spot in the National League. They are starting a critical 10-game road swing this weekend that also includes stops in Florida and Cincinnati. Fortunately for St. Louis, the road has been kind this year, as the Cards boast a healthy 31-25 record away, having scored 5.3 runs per game while batting .282. Still, the Cubs 43-16 record at Wrigley could trump any of those numbers.

At Shea, the Mets and Marlins will go at it for three key games over the weekend. With both teams back within 2-games of division leading Philadelphia, the series takes on significance. Neither team can afford to lose ground to the Phillies, who host the lowly Pirates this weekend. New York has taken five of the nine meetings between these teams this year and will be looking to improve its 34-21 record at home. The Mets are 11-2 in their last 13 games as hosts and haven’t lost a series in New York since June. Meanwhile, the next 10 games for the Marlins could make or break the ’08 season, as all 10 come against teams in the pennant race.

Switching focus to the junior circuit, on the south side of Chicago, the Red Sox will spend the weekend at U.S. Cellular Field taking on the leaders of the Central Division. Boston remains in striking distance of Tampa Bay in the East, but this figures to be a key 4-game series for the Red Sox, since they’ve struggled on the road against good teams this year. The White Sox meanwhile, are just a half-game up in the Central over Minnesota and have not fared well against Boston lately, losing six of the last seven at home.

Finally, in Los Angeles, the Yankees and Angels hook up for the second straight weekend, only this time on the other side of the country. In New York last weekend, the teams split four games. The Yankees face a big six-game road trip which will conclude in Minnesota in the early part of next week. At 5-1/2 games down to the Rays, anything shy of a 3-3 trip will be damaging to their playoff hopes. For the Angels, sitting comfortably 12 games ahead in the West, it’s almost time to start counting magic numbers.

Now, here’s a Top StatFox Power Trend for each of the 15 series’ on tap for the weekend.

ST LOUIS at CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season.
The average score was CHICAGO CUBS 6.2, OPPONENT 3.5 - (Rating = 1*)

PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA
PITTSBURGH is 12-45 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 2*)

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 19-33 (-18.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 2*)

FLORIDA at NY METS
FLORIDA is 19-12 (+14.2 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was FLORIDA 4.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 2*)

WASHINGTON at MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 20-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 6.1, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 2*)

SAN DIEGO at COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 4-17 (-16.7 Units) against the money line vs. a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.4, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 4*)

ATLANTA at ARIZONA
ATLANTA is 29-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 4.3, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 2*)

LA DODGERS at SAN FRANCISCO
LA DODGERS are 23-12 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA DODGERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)

TEXAS at BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 73-33 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 5.7 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)

OAKLAND at DETROIT
DETROIT is 17-25 (-13.6 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 5.1, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)

CLEVELAND at TORONTO
TORONTO is 13-1 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TORONTO 6.0, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 1*)

MINNESOTA at KANSAS CITY
MINNESOTA is 21-7 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 5.6, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 4*)

BOSTON at CHI WHITE SOX
BOSTON is 11-24 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was BOSTON 4.1, OPPONENT 4.9 - (Rating = 2*)

NY YANKEES at LA ANGELS
NY YANKEES are 11-0 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was NY YANKEES 6.5, OPPONENT 1.7 - (Rating = 4*)

TAMPA BAY at SEATTLE
TAMPA BAY is 5-17 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 3.4, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 1*)



MLB Series Betting- Florida at New York Mets
2008-08-08

When the 2008 season began, one of these teams was supposed to be a player in the NL East race and the other was thought to pile up losses and be a punching bag for the other contenders in the division. Instead, both are in a virtual dead head heat, trying to chase down last year’s champion Philadelphia. Seeing we have made our way past the first week of August, this series takes on great significance in shaping how the NL East will shake out. (Free Friday Foxsheet for this big series)

The New York Mets (60-54, -6.3 units) received a boost as David Wright hit a walk-off home run yesterday, to help them win series over shameful San Diego. While yesterday’s homer helps lighten the mood in Mets clubhouse, the fact remains they have lost seven of 10 and trail the Phillies by two in the loss column. Besides base-running blunders and the usual Mets lack of focus, the loss of Billy Wagner has placed too many pitchers in the bullpen into unfamiliar roles and they are not coming thru.

Florida (61-54, +18.8) is tied with New York in the loss column and have been the best bet in the National League a good portion of the season. In addition, they have been among the leading Over wagers all year, due to binges of hitting and faulty bullpen work on more than one occasion.

Ricky Nolasco (11-6, 3.91, 1.184 WHIP) has emerged as the ace of the staff for Florida with his variety of breaking balls. He’s been ringing up the strikeouts for most of the season and his control has been exceptional since June, with 6.5 to 1 punch-outs to walks ratio. With Sportsbook.com establishing the Marlins as +120 underdogs, with total of Un8.5, Nolasco and Florida hold value, since they are 12-5 when not favored. New York is 39-22 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better and has their own good luck charm in Oliver Perez (7-7, 4.12, 1.387). Though Perez’s numbers are not often impressive, he and the Mets thrive against big swingers, with 38-20 record vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game.

Game 1 Edge: Marlins

Word has not officially been passed on who will start for the disabled John Maine; nonetheless most expect it to be it to be 29-year old right-hander Brian Stokes. He pitched in the big leagues with Tampa Bay the last two seasons and is 10-8 with a 4.41 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) at Triple-A New Orleans. The Mets may need to fall back on the fact they are 113-69 at Shea Stadium vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game. Florida will counter with Scott Olson (6-6, 3.87, 1.282) who has pitched in some hard luck with 11 no-decisions. Olson almost certainly would have a winning record, however has undermined himself as well, reaching high pitch counters in the fifth of sixth innings, having to be taken out. Olson can be flat out nasty on left-hand batters (.173 BA), expect New York to load up with right-hand hitters. He and the Marlins are 11-6 this season facing right-hand hurlers.

Game 2 Edge: Marlins

On May 31, most Mets observers figured Mike Pelphrey (10-7, 3.85, 1.440) was making his final start with the big club, with Pedro Martinez coming off the DL. Most thought it was a make or break effort for the 6’7 right-hander and he gave a very good performance in holding the Dodgers to two runs over seven innings, in a no-decision Mets 3-2 win. Since that time, Pelphrey is 8-1 (Mets 10-2) and his ERA has dropped over a run. He’s been especially effective as Shea with 2.29 ERA, with the Metropolitans winning 8 of his 12 home starts. Josh Johnson (2-0, 3.34, 1.517) will be the mound opponent in the series finale. After coming off the DL, Johnson has helped Florida win all five of his starts, not allowing more than four runs in any outing. The Marlins come into this series 19-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

This should be a tremendous series with great intensity. New York has more pressure, as they were expected to be in this position, while Florida is playing with house money just staying in the chase. Having just taken series from Phillies and posting .500 record on the road this season, will give the nod to Florida to win the series with 11-11 record at Shea Stadium the last three years.

Sportsbook.com series odds: Marlins +140, Mets -180
StatFox Edge Pick: Florida
2008 Record – 9-5





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